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Á|¨Ò»¡¡A¬ü°ê¤H¹J¤W¥iºÃªº¨Æ¥ó®É¡A¸g±`¤Þ¥Î¤@¥y¿Î»y¡G¡u¶W¥G´M±`ªº«ÅºÙ¡A»Ý­n¶W¥G´M±`ªºµý¾Ú¡C¡v¡]Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence¡^¤j¦h¼Æ¤H¥H¬°³o¥y¸Ü¬O¥X¦Û¬ü°ê±d¤Dº¸¤j¾Ç±Ð±Â¥dº¸ÂĮڡ]Carl Sagan¡^¡AÂĮکó¤@¤E¤E¤»¦~¥h¥@¡A¥Í«e­P¤O©ó±À°Ê´¶¤Î¬ì¾Ç±Ð¨|¡A¼¶¼g¤F³\¦h¬ì¤Û¤p»¡¡A¯ü­}¬ì¤h¥´¥Dºtªº¡i±µÄ²¥¼¨Ó¡j¡]Contact¡^«K¬OÂĮڪº§@«~¤§¤@¡C¤@¤E¤K¹s¦~¥L¥D«ù¤@­Ó¦W¥s¡i¦t©z¡jªº¹qµø¸`¥Ø¡A¦b¸`¥Ø¤¤¥L»¡¥X¤F¥H¤W¨º¥y¦W¨¥¡A¸g¹L¹qµø¼s¼½¤§«á¡A³o¥y®y¥k»Ê²`¤J¤H¤ß¡C

¨ä¹ê¡AÂĮڬO²Ä¤T­Ó»¡³o¥y¸Üªº¤H¡A¤§«eªF±KªÛ®Ú¤j¾ÇªÀ·|¾Ç®a¬ð¾|¦è¡]Marcello Truzzi¡^´¿¸g»¡¹L¡G¡u¶W¥G´M±`ªº«ÅºÙ¡A»Ý­n¶W¥G´M±`ªºµý©ú¡C¡v¡]Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof¡^¬ð¾|¦è´¿¸g¸¹¥l¦¨¥ß¤@­Ó©e­û·|¡A±Mªù©î¬ï°°¬ì¾Ç¡A³o¥y¸Ü´N¬O¦bµo´§ÃhºÃºë¯«ªº­I´º¤U»¡¥X¨Óªº¡C¤£¹L¡A¬ð¾|¦è¨Ã¨S¦³¦b¹qµø¸`¥Ø¤¤¦V´X¤d¸U¤H«Å§i¨º¥y¸Ü¡A§ó¨S¦³¦n¹³ÂĮگ뼶¼g³\¦h¬ì´¶§@«~¡C½Ðª`·N¡A¦b³o¨â¥y»¡¸Ü¤¤¡A³Ì«á¤@­Ó¦r¨Ã¤£¬Û¦P¡AÂĮڻ¡¡uµý¾Ú¡v¡A¬ð¾|¦è»¡¡uµý©ú¡v¡A¡uµý©ú¡vªí¹F¥X±Ù°vºIÅK¯ëªºªÖ©w¡A¡uµý¾Ú¡vªº¤O¶q«hµy¬°»´·L¤@ÂI¡A¸g¹L¨Ç·L§ï°Ê¡AÂĮڧó¥[¥YÅã¥X¦Û¤vªº¶}©ñºë¯«¡C

ŪªÌ¨Ã¤£»Ý­n¬°¬ð¾|¦è©ê¥´¤£¥­¡A¦]¬°¡A¨ä¹ê¤Q¤K¥@¬öªk°ê數¾Ç®a拉´¶拉´µ¡]Pierre Simon de Laplace¡^¤w¸g»¡¹LÃþ¦üªº¸Ü¡G¡u¹ï©ó¶W¥G´M±`ªº«ÅºÙ¡Aµý¾Úªº¥÷¶q¤@©w­n©M¥¦ªº¤£´M±`µ{«×¬ÛºÙ¡C¡v¡]The weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness¡^³o¥y¸Ü»¡°_¨Ó¬Û·íñD§á¡A¦ý¨ä¹ê·N«ä©M¬ð¾|¦è¡BÂĮڪºÁ¿ªk¤j¦P¤p²§¡A·íµM¡A«á¨â­Óª©¥»§ó¥[²³æ¦³¤O¡C

¦b¤¤¤åùØ­±¥ç¦³¬Û¦ü¨Ò¤l¡A¶ÀÀL¶ñµüªº¡i§ÑºÉ¤ß¤¤±¡¡j¡A²{¤w¦¨¬°¸g¨åª÷¦±¡A¨ä¤¤¦³´X¥y¬O¡G¡u¶¶·NÁÍ¡A¤o¤ß¦Û¦p¡A¥ô¸}¨«¡A¤ØÂßÀH¹J¡C¡vµ§ªÌ¦b¿DªùŪ®Ñ®É¡AªL¦õÃv¥ý¥Í¬O¤j¾Ç¹Ï®ÑÀ]ªºÀ]ªø¡A¦³¤@¦¸§Ú­Ì¤@¦P¦Y¶º®É¡AªL¥ý¥Í«ü¥X³o´X¥yºqµü¨ä¹ê¬O¥X¦Û¥Lªº§@«~¡A¤@¤E¤K¹s¦~ªL¥ý¥Í»P¤Ó¤Ó¹CÄý¤¤°ê¤j³°¡A¼Ç¹L¿Å¶§®É»·²·°j¶­®p¡A©ó¬O¼g¥X¤F¥H¤U´X¥y¡G¡u½´­¸µÓ»E¤H¶¡ºD¡A³ß¼ÖÀH½t¹Ú¤@³õ¡AÅ´¤ë­·¥ú¾îµ§¯º¡A«C¤sµL³B¤£®a¶m¡C¡v¬Û¹ï¤§¤U¡A¡u«C¤sµL³B¤£®a¶m¡v¤ñ°_¡u¶¶·NÁÍ¡A¤o¤ß¦Û¦p¡A¥ô¸}¨«¡A¤ØÂßÀH¹J¡v¡Aªº½T¬O§ó¥[¿@ÁY¡A§Ú¥¿­nÆg¼ÛªL¥ý¥Íªº®É­Ô¡AªL¥ý¥ÍÁ¾»¹¦a´¦¥X©³µP¡A¨ä¹ê¥Lªº¸Ü¬O­É¦Û¤@¥N¤å¾Ç¤j®vÄÇ©vÀ[ªºµü¡G¡u¬G¶mÀH¸}¬O¡A¨¬¨ì«K¬°®a¡C¡v¥L©ZµM©Ó»{ÄÇ©vÀ[µü¤ñ¦Û¤vªº§ó¥[ºë·Ò¡C¥i¬O¡A¤j¦h¼Æ¤H¥uª¾¹D¶ÀÀLªºµü¡A¦Ó¤£ª¾¹DªL¦õÃv¡BÄÇ©vÀ[ªºµü¡C

¨ä¹ê¡A¥H¤W¨Ã¤£¬O©t¥ß¡B­Ó§Oªº¨Ò¤l¡A³\¦h¤j«ä·Q®aªºÆ[©À¦bµoªí¤§«e³£¤w¸g¦³«e¤H»¡¹L¡A¨Ò¦p·R¦]´µ©Zªº¬Û¹ï½×¡B¦N¯S¡]Stephen J. Gould¡^ªº¡u¶¡Â_¥­¿Å¡v»¡¡B¤Õ®¦ªº¨å½dÂಾ¦Ó¾É­P¬ì¾Ç­²©R ¡K ¡C¤Ñ¤~¡A¨Ã¤£¤@©w¬O­ì³ÐªÌ¡A¦ý²Ä¤G­Ó§ï¨}ªÌ¥ç¥¼¥²·|¾_Åå¤Ñ¤U¡A¤@­Ó·§©À©¹©¹¨ì¤F²Ä¤T¡B¥|¤â¤~·|µo´­¥ú¤j¡C¦æ¤å¦Ü¦¹¡Aµ§ªÌ¶}©lÄøÄø±ý°Ê¡A§Ú¥¿¦bÀ˵ø¤¤­^¤å¦W¨¥¤jÃã¨å¡A·Ç³Æ§ï¼g«e¤Hªº»¡¸Ü¡A¥H¹Ï´­¦W¥ß¸U¡A½Ð¦U¦ì«ø¥Ø¥H«Ý¡C

2008.7.27

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